Commodity market report
| |
51 Pages

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016


Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. We have raised our price forecast for 2016 and 2017 by approximately 5% to $53/t CFR and $50/t CFR respectively. But our medium term view has not changed: in a market that is effectively ex-growth for the next 3-5 years, prices will have to fall in order to force out high cost supply. 2018/19 looks particularly challenging with prices falling to $45/t (real) in order to force out excess supply. Our long term price is $60/t CFR (real 2016 terms) but a return to that level as an annual average is unlikely for at least ten years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 652.00 KB 51 Pages, 12 Tables, 26 Figures
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.02 MB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Price outlook
  • Demand outlook
  • Supply outlook
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
  • Overview
    • Key demand forecast data
    • Chinese iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
  • South America
  • Middle East
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • Overview
    • Short/medium term view: significant upward adjustment to exports
    • Long term view: broadly neutral, small upward adjustment to exports
    • Key changes to global export forecast
      • Australia
      • Brazil
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Africa
      • CIS
      • Asia
        • India
        • China
        • Resources and production
        • Other Asia
      • Europe
        • Sweden (LKAB)
        • Norway
      • CIS
        • Russian Federation
        • Ukraine
        • Kazakhstan
      • North America
        • Canada
        • United States
        • Mexico
      • South America
        • Brazil
          • Vale
          • Other Brazilian Producers
        • Other South America
      • Africa
        • South Africa
        • Mauritania
        • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
      • Australia
        • Overview
        • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
      • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Overview
    • Short term outlook (revised up):
    • Medium term outlook (revised up):
    • Long term outlook (no change – but risk on timing):
    • What's changed?
      • Key factors influencing for the medium term price outlook include the following:
    • Costs and prices - the medium term view
    • Price outlook for lump
      • Past trends in lump premia
      • Future trends in lump premia
        • Iron ore lump premia
        • Price outlook for pellets
          • Past trends in pellet premia
          • Future tends in pellet premia
          • The long-term outlook (post 2020)
            • Overview
            • Long run trade balance
            • Long run incentive price

In this report there are 38 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Price outlook
  • Demand outlook
  • Supply outlook
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand
  • Overview
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Global consumption of iron ore by product
    • Growth in iron ore consumption and steel production
    • Chinese steel demand and investment (GFCF)
    • Steel exports to dominate production growth
    • Het metal vs. scrap supply
    • Burden mix in Chinese blast furnaces
    • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Europe
    • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS
    • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America
    • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America
    • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East
    • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • Overview
    • Iron ore exports by country
    • Iron ore exports by company
    • Iron ore production and exports by major country
    • Iron ore exports by key company
    • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
    • Chinese mined iron ore production
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Steel production growth by region
    • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Overview
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, CFR China
    • Total cost of the "big 4", US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
    • Evolution of CFR China cash cost
    • Seaborne iron ore breakeven price
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Iron ore pellet premia
    • Iron ore consumption growth: China vs. India
    • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
    • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.