Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQ's about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

30 September 2016

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. We have raised our price forecast for 2016 and 2017 by approximately 5% to $53/t CFR and $50/t CFR respectively. But our medium term view has not changed: in a market that is effectively ex-growth for the next 3-5 years, prices will have to fall in order to force out high cost supply. 2018/19 looks particularly challenging with prices falling to $45/t (real) in order to force out excess supply. Our long term price is $60/t CFR (real 2016 terms) but a return to that level as an annual average is unlikely for at least ten years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Price outlook
  • Demand outlook
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
    • Key demand forecast data
    • Chinese iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
  • South America
  • Middle East
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
    • Short/medium term view: significant upward adjustment to exports
    • Long term view: broadly neutral, small upward adjustment to exports
    • Key changes to global export forecast
      • Australia
      • Brazil
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Africa
      • CIS
      • Asia
        • India
        • China
        • Resources and production
        • Other Asia
      • Europe
        • Sweden (LKAB)
        • Norway
      • CIS
        • Russian Federation
        • Ukraine
        • Kazakhstan
      • North America
        • Canada
        • United States
        • Mexico
      • South America
        • Brazil
          • Vale
          • Other Brazilian Producers
        • Other South America
      • Africa
        • South Africa
        • Mauritania
        • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
      • Australia
        • Overview
        • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
      • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Short term outlook (revised up):
    • Medium term outlook (revised up):
    • Long term outlook (no change – but risk on timing):
    • What's changed?
      • Key factors influencing for the medium term price outlook include the following:
    • Costs and prices - the medium term view
    • Price outlook for lump
      • Past trends in lump premia
      • Future trends in lump premia
        • Iron ore lump premia
        • Price outlook for pellets
          • Past trends in pellet premia
          • Future tends in pellet premia
          • The long-term outlook (post 2020)
            • Overview
            • Long run trade balance
            • Long run incentive price

Tables and charts

This report includes 38 images and tables including:

  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and steel production
  • Chinese steel demand and investment (GFCF)
  • Steel exports to dominate production growth
  • Het metal vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in Chinese blast furnaces
  • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, CFR China
  • Evolution of CFR China cash cost
  • Seaborne iron ore breakeven price
  • Iron ore exports by country
  • Iron ore exports by company
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Total cost of the "big 4", US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Steel production growth by region
  • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Iron ore consumption growth: China vs. India
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016

    PDF 652.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2016

    ZIP 990.06 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 90.14 KB

  • Document


    PDF 213.94 KB

  • Document


    PDF 290.58 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 175.17 KB

Trusted by leading organisations