Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2017

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02 October 2017

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2017

Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. Read the outlook to find out why we think: 2018 will mark the low point of the cycle for iron ore, with prices averaging $56/t CFR Prices need to fall to this level and remain there for up to two years to force out uncompetitive supply All seaborne suppliers can expect margin compression over the next few years, but with quality driven price divergence persisting, suppliers of high-grade ores will fair better Effective from 2025, our long-term price forecast is $60/t CFR (real 2017 terms) 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand update: what's changed?
  • Demand update: key swing factors
  • Supply update: what's changed?
  • Supply update: key swing factors
  • Price forecast
  • Demand
    • 2017 will be a record year for global crude steel output
    • This will be the last year of Chinese steel production growth
    • Chinese hot metal output will decline from this year, reducing iron ore demand
    • World ex-China: Crude steel output and hot metal growth to slow, but continue
    • India: huge potential for seaborne iron ore import growth – but it will come late in our forecast horizon
    • Seaborne iron ore imports: near-term growth followed by a period of contraction
    • China
      • Steel and hot metal: what’s behind the high production in 2017?
      • Steel outlook: hot metal production revised up by 38 Mt in the medium term
      • Iron ore demand outlook
        • Lump demand
        • Sinter fines
        • Pellet and pellet feed
        • India
        • Japan
        • South Korea
        • Taiwan
        • Other Asia
        • Europe
          • EU28
          • Turkey
        • CIS
          • Russian Federation
          • Ukraine
        • North America
          • United States
          • Mexico
          • Canada
        • South America
          • Brazil
          • Other South American countries
        • Africa
        • Australia
        • Middle East
  • Supply
    • The outlook to 2020: significant upward adjustment to exports
    • The outlook post-2020: small upward adjustment to exports
    • Key changes to global export forecast
      • Australia
      • Brazil
      • Asia
      • Africa
      • Asia
        • Short-term outlook – production to fall in 2017
        • Medium-term outlook – rising imports will squeeze out more production
        • Long-term outlook – production will keep falling, but at a slower rate
        • Main production decline will be from sinter fines
    • India
      • India - overview
      • India – medium term view
      • India – long-term view
    • Other Asia (ex-China, ex-India)
    • Sweden (LKAB)
    • Norway
    • Russian Federation
    • Ukraine
    • Kazakhstan
    • Canada
    • United States
    • Mexico
    • Brazil
      • Vale
      • Other Brazilian Producers
    • Other South America
    • South Africa
    • Mauritania
    • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
      • Overview
      • Australia
        • Overview
        • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
      • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Short term outlook (revised up):
    • Medium term outlook (revised up):
    • Long term outlook (no change):
    • What’s changed?
      • Stricter enforcement of pollution controls in China
      • Widening iron ore price differentials
      • Chinese hot metal production – short/medium term forecast raised but still close to peak
      • Higher than expected seaborne supply
    • Iron ore costs and prices – the medium term view
      • Price outlook for lump
        • Past trends in lump premia
        • Future trends in lump premia
      • Price outlook for pellets
        • Past trends in pellet premia
        • Future tends in pellet premia
        • The Long Term Outlook (post 2020)
          • Methodology
          • Long run trade balance
          • Long run incentive price

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

  • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Key demand forecast data
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, CFR China
  • Iron ore price vs cost of production
  • CFR China cost vs iron ore price
  • Prices need to remain low enough to discourage Chinese restarts and/or Indian exports.
  • Point of intersection - 2017 $72/t, 2020 $56/t
  • How does crude steel production change between 2016 and 2017?
  • Global exports of iron ore by country, Mt
  • Iron ore exports by country
  • Iron ore exports by company
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Asian exports of iron ore by country (Mt)
  • Indian production of iron ore
  • Indian trade in iron ore
  • Iron ore price and price differentials
  • Composition of seaborne supply
  • Iron ore demand forecast – revised up
  • Imports will rise further in the medium term
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • The share of pellet feed in total iron ore production will increase in the future
  • Iron ore output will continue to contract in the medium term
  • Iron ore lump price
  • B/F pellet price
  • Global seaborne trade in iron ore
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • long run supply "gap" analysis
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects only
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets long-term outlook data 2017 Q3.xls

    XLS 915.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2017

    PDF 1008.15 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2017

    ZIP 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 95.77 KB

  • Document


    PDF 207.58 KB

  • Document


    PDF 260.37 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 579.98 KB

Why buy this report?

We think 2018 will mark the low point of the cycle for iron ore prices. If you need to understand the complex factors that influence fluctuating demand, our detailed report will help you to:
• Identify short and long term iron ore price trends: key risks and swing factors
• Gain a thorough understanding of iron ore market dynamics, including revenue and demand
• Make informed investment decisions by understanding market drivers

Relying on our deep market knowledge, our report provides an in-depth view of the supply- and demand-side drivers for the iron ore market globally up to 2035. It includes:

• Up-to-date price forecasts , taking into account the latest developments in the iron ore and steel markets
• Visual analysis of price, supply, demand and risk outlooks
• Data on global production trends, as well as export and import patterns

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