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Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2015

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The price outlook for iron ore has deteriorated significantly since our last quarterly update with the key change being a downward revision to Chinese demand forecasts. We now have greater conviction that Chinese hot metal production peaked in 2014 and will continue trending lower for the next five years. This removes at least 30 million tpy from the demand side of the iron ore equation. Iron ore producers are adapting to the "new normal" of stagnant global demand which looks set to persist through to 2020. Many producers are in "survival mode" and balance sheet preservation is now the primary focus. Our revised price forecast for the five year period 2016 to 2020 is $49/t CFR (real 2015 $). Our forecast for 2016 is $46/t CFR.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 1.20 MB
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q4 2015V1.xls XLS - 1.04 MB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

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