Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2015

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15 December 2015

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The price outlook for iron ore has deteriorated significantly since our last quarterly update with the key change being a downward revision to Chinese demand forecasts. We now have greater conviction that Chinese hot metal production peaked in 2014 and will continue trending lower for the next five years. This removes at least 30 million tpy from the demand side of the iron ore equation. Iron ore producers are adapting to the "new normal" of stagnant global demand which looks set to persist through to 2020. Many producers are in "survival mode" and balance sheet preservation is now the primary focus. Our revised price forecast for the five year period 2016 to 2020 is $49/t CFR (real 2015 $). Our forecast for 2016 is $46/t CFR.

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    IOMS LT Datafile Q4 2015V1.xls

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