2016 was a remarkable year for iron ore with prices doubling from $40/t CFR at the start of the year to $80/t by the end of the year. We expect 2017 to be a mirror image of 2016. Prices will start the year high and finish low. Our price forecast for H1-17 is $65/t, followed by $50/t in H2-17. Iron ore's problem of excess supply capability has not gone away but the response has been delayed. We still think 2018 will be the low point of the iron ore price cycle as stagnant demand coincides with plentiful supply of low cost seaborne iron ore. An annual average price of $47/t (real 2016 terms) will be required to force the necessary and inevitable supply response, most of which will occur within China. Our market view post-2018 is little changed; prices will gravitate towards our long term average of $60/t CFR (real 2016 dollars).
This report includes 2 file(s)
Iron ore LT Datafile Q4 2016.xls XLS - 1.02 MB
Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.33 MB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
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Commodity market report | Dec 2016
Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2016
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