Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2016



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Report summary

2016 was a remarkable year for iron ore with prices doubling from $40/t CFR at the start of the year to $80/t by the end of the year. We expect 2017 to be a mirror image of 2016. Prices will start the year high and finish low. Our price forecast for H1 17 is $65/t followed by $50/t in H2 17. Iron ore's problem of excess supply capability has not gone away but the response has been delayed. We still think 2018 will be the low point of the iron ore price cycle as stagnant demand coincides with plentiful supply of low cost seaborne iron ore. An annual average price of $47/t (real 2016 terms) will be required to force the necessary and inevitable supply response most of which will occur within China. Our market view post 2018 is little changed; prices will gravitate towards our long term average of $60/t CFR (real 2016 dollars).

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    Iron ore LT Datafile Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 1.02 MB

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    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.33 MB

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