Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2016

Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

April was an astonishing month for iron ore with prices surging towards $70/t CFR as speculative money poured into an overheated market. Beijing's latest attempt to stimulate growth through "old style" credit fuelled fixed investment has driven up steel production and generated strong demand for iron ore. The supply side has also played a part with all three iron ore majors cutting production guidance. Sentiment has turned positive and there's a growing realisation that seaborne iron ore could be more closely balanced this year than previously thought. But iron ore's latest rally is built on fragile foundations and by our reckoning this is still an ex-growth market with rising supply and falling costs. Our Q2-16 average price forecast is $56/t CFR, falling to $48/t CFR in H2-16 and lower still in 2017.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 394.33 KB 13 Pages, 6 Tables, 10 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile April 2016.xls XLS - 402.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • China – a short term fix for a long term problem
    • Supply from majors under-performs
    • Chinese imports were surprisingly strong in Q1
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Chinese imports still rising.
    • Chart 2: Australia's dominance continues.
  • Prices
    • Chart 3: Prices and spreads rise together.
    • Chart 4: Steel mill margin still on the rise
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q1-16 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore exports: Q4 year-on-year change
    • Iron ore imports: Q4 year-on-year change
    • Global exports of iron ore
    • Global imports of iron ore
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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