Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2017

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Report summary

After an exceptionally strong first quarter, iron ore took a big hit in April as the squeeze on Chinese mill margins fed through to raw materials. From a supply, demand and cost perspective this market is heading down. Our Q2-17 price forecast is $68/t CFR, down from $86/t in Q1.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile April 2017.xls

    XLS 407.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2017

    PDF 431.31 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook April 2017

    ZIP 605.60 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Back to reality
    • Steel production off to a roaring start – but can it last?
    • Supply side developments
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:


  • Chart 3: Iron ore price
  • Chart 4: Iron ore price spreads
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: steel mill margins
  • Chart 2: iron ore relative performance
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q1-17 year-on-year production change


  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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