Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

August was another strong month for iron ore with the TSI 62% index holding close to $60/t. Chinese steel production is holding up well at a time of slower growth in seaborne ore supply which should keep the market closely balanced for the remainder of the year. We see little reason for prices to break out of the established range of $55-60/t CFR in the short term. Our revised forecast for Q3-16 is $58/t CFR, followed by $55/t CFR in Q4. The annual average price forecast for 2016 is now $54/t CFR.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 450.85 KB 12 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile August 2016.xls XLS - 403.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Chinese steel production forecast - raised again.
    • Chinese imports – heading for a billion tonnes!
    • A closer look at Ukraine
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Chinese imports of iron ore
    • Chart 2: Share of Chinese imports by source
  • Prices
    • Chart 3: Iron ore price vs. steel mill margin
    • Chart 4: Lump and pellet premium
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q2-16 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
    • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
    • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
    • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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