Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016

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Report summary

August was another strong month for iron ore with the TSI 62% index holding close to $60/t.Chinese steel production is holding up well at a time of slower growth in seaborne ore supply which should keep the market closely balanced for the remainder of the year.We see little reason for prices to break out of the established range of $55 60/t CFR in the short term. Our revised forecast for Q3 16 is $58/t CFR followed by $55/t CFR in Q4. The annual average price forecast for 2016 is now $54/t CFR.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    IOMS Datafile August 2016.xls

    XLS 403.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016

    PDF 450.85 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2016

    ZIP 630.08 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
  • Prices
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 3: Iron ore price vs. steel mill margin
  • Chart 4: Lump and pellet premium
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: Chinese imports of iron ore
  • Chart 2: Share of Chinese imports by source
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q2-16 year-on-year production change

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2

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