Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

Report summary

August was another rip-roaring month for iron ore with the benchmark index testing $80/t. High blast furnace utilisation and tightness in Chinese rebar should provide support around $70/t through September. But there are danger signs ahead for Q4: notably a slowdown in the Chinese property sector and enforced cutbacks to blast furnace output that could reduce demand for seaborne iron ore by 40Mt. Iron ore prices will almost certainly be lower in Q4 than Q3, but it increasingly looks like a "price correction" not a "price collapse".

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017 PDF - 421.17 KB 13 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data August 2017.xls XLS - 409.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Global hot metal production – still hot!
    • But winter production cuts loom
    • Chinese imports – on track to rise by 50Mt in 2017
  • Prices
    • Is this as good as it gets?
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Chinese imports on track to reach 1075Mt
    • Chart 2: Australia losing share in China
  • Prices
    • Chart 3: Chinese steel mill margins driving spot iron ore price
    • Chart 4: Coordinated price strength across ferrous and non-ferrous sectors
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q2-17 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
    • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
    • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
    • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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