Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2016

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Report summary

A remarkable year for iron ore is drawing to a close. We started at $40/t and will finish close to $80/t. Miners are enjoying their highest margins since 2014, and in the short term it looks set to continue.Prices should hold close to $80/t through January. Thereafter we see more downside than upside price risk. Our revised price forecast for Q1-17 is $70/t CFR.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile December 2016.xls

    XLS 404.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2016

    PDF 445.33 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2016

    ZIP 620.96 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • More smog related stoppages
    • Supply side developments
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:


  • Chart 3: Chinese steel mill margins vs. iron ore price
  • Chart 4: 65% Fe premium at all time high
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: Investment in both property and infrastructure slowed down in China.
  • Chart 2: Chinese imports of iron ore
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-16 year-on-year production change


  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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