Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2017

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20 December 2017

Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2017

Report summary

The global iron ore industry looks set to end 2017 and start 2018 in remarkably good shape. The 62% index is approaching a three month high of $75/t CFR and while tightness persists in the Chinese steel market we see no reason for a sharp fall in iron ore prices. We still think prices will be lower in 2018 than 2017, but the anticipated "correction" could be delayed until after Q1-18.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • 2017: better than expected
    • Positive macro economic outlook...
    • ...but what if this is as good as it gets? (for Chinese pig iron)
    • Our initial read on the "2+26" cuts
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Key forecast data
  • Prices and premia
  • Freight rates
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Positive macro economic outlook for 2018
  • Mill margins are high
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-17 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data December 2017.xls

    XLS 410.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2017

    PDF 406.25 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2017

    ZIP 586.72 KB

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