Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2019

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17 December 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2019

Report summary

Iron ore has been full of surprises this year and December is no exception. Instead of retreating towards $80/t (as we predicted last month) the price has risen above $90/t. A nice year end bonus for the iron ore majors that are already enjoying record cash margins. Given the resilience of Chinese demand and the vulnerability of seaborne supply, the current tightness could persist in early 2020. But as the year progresses supply growth will accelerate and ultimately outpace demand growth. Prices will fall in 2020. It’s just a matter of how much!

Table of contents

    • Loose winter production restrictions
    • Steel inventories at historically low levels
    • Demand for iron ore restocking prior to Chinese New Year
    • Brazil – the worst is over
    • Australia – this year’s surprise underperformer
    • Canada – on a roll
    • Chile - exports hit a ten-year low!
    • India – a big swinger in 2019 (but could swing the other way in 2020)!
    • As good as it gets?
    • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Loose winter production restrictions and healthy cash margins prompt steelmakers to continue production, supporting iron ore demand
  • Historically low steel inventory supports steel and hot metal production - ultimately iron ore demand
  • Prices ease in November, but not by much.
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Chinese iron ore imports, Mt per day
  • Chinese iron ore imports by sourcing countries
  • Iron ore loadings from West Australia
  • Chinese iron ore port inventory
  • Chinese blast furnace utilisation rate
  • Chinese monthly hot metal production
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly mine production by company
  • Year-on-year change in quarterly production by company (100% basis)
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data December 2019.xls

    XLS 415.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2019

    PDF 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook December 2019

    ZIP 1.50 MB

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