Commodity market report
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14 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2016

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

Iron ore has been the surprise out-performer this year with prices rising 15% to a four month high of $50/t CFR in late February. Temporary supply tightness, following lower shipments from Brazil and Australia, coincided with Chinese restocking, causing prices to jump by $5/t in the space of a few days in mid-February. Beijing's latest attempt to stimulate the property market also helped by lifting steel prices and providing a much needed boost to sentiment across the entire sector. But in our opinion the price rally will be short lived and is not supported by underlying fundamentals. Iron ore's problems remain the same today as they did a month ago: stagnant demand, excess supply capability and cost deflation.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 407.63 KB 14 Pages, 6 Tables, 13 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile February 2016.xls XLS - 403.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Conflicting signals emerge from China.
    • More price related cutbacks in store
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Production of CISA members
    • Chart 2: Huge surge in new loans in China
    • Chart 3: Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports
    • Chart 4: Mill stocks vs. iron ore price
    • Chart 5: Price related closures
    • Chart 6: FOB cash cost of the majors
  • Prices
    • Chart 7: TSI iron ore price vs. SHFE rebar price
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q4-15 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore exports: Q4 year-on-year change
    • Iron ore imports: Q4 year-on-year change
    • Global exports of iron ore
    • Global imports of iron ore
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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