The iron ore industry is experiencing the longest bull market since the 2009/10 GFC recovery. But we don't think it can last. Chinese crude steel and hot metal production will grow by less than 1% this year and this is not enough to accommodate committed seaborne iron ore supply expansions without significant closures or scale-backs at higher cost producers. A sustained period of sub-$60/t is required to force out excess supply. But signs of a shakeout are lacking - which gives upside risk to out short-term price forecasts.