Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2017

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Report summary

The iron ore industry is experiencing the longest bull market since the 2009/10 GFC recovery. But we don't think it can last. Chinese crude steel and hot metal production will grow by less than 1% this year and this is not enough to accommodate committed seaborne iron ore supply expansions without significant closures or scale backs at higher cost producers. A sustained period of sub $60/t is required to force out excess supply. But signs of a shakeout are lacking which gives upside risk to out short term price forecasts.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile February 2016.xls

    XLS 408.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2017

    PDF 435.22 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2017

    ZIP 611.71 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
  • Prices
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 3: Port stocks at an all time high
  • Chart 4: Rising prices, widening spreads
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: longest bull run since post-GFC
  • Chart 2: iron ore outperformance
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q4-16 year-on-year production change

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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