Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2018

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28 February 2018

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2018

Report summary

News that Northern Chinese regions plan to extend blast furnace utilisation restrictions had the peculiar effect of boosting iron ore prices this month. This might seem counter-intuitive – lower pig iron production equals lower demand for iron ore. But in a tight steel market, restricting supply means higher steel prices and margins – and this flows through to raw materials. But the effect of the policy will end in late March/early April. We should then see Chinese steel prices ease and that will ultimately flow through to iron ore.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Chinese blast furnace cuts – what's happened?
    • Indian ore - Goa, Goa, gone!?
    • Pellet feed – it's harder than it looks!
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Key forecast data
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Chart 1: Goan ore – a smaller share of a smaller pie.
  • Chart 2: India is now a relatively insignificant supplier to China.
  • Chart 3: Minas Rio pellet feed versus 65% Fe fines price.
  • Chart 4: Minas Rio pellet feed versus 62% Fe fines price.
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-17 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data February 2018.xls

    XLS 413.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2018

    PDF 369.10 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2018

    ZIP 555.83 KB