Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2019

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28 February 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2019

Report summary

If Vale exports less iron ore this year, can new supply enter the market to offset those losses? Which companies are lowest on the cost curve and what steelmaking raw-material alternatives (China/India/Scrap) could there be? How is iron ore demand in China fairing? Even a small contraction in hot-metal production could be sufficient to re-balance the seaborne iron ore market this year. How about India? Following a research trip this month – meeting with over 100 industry participants – we provide feedback on the view from the ground in this months iron ore short-term outlook.

Table of contents

    • Black Iron – Shymanivske, Ukraine
    • Carpentaria Resources – Hawson’s, Australia
    • ENRC – Pedra de Ferro, Brazil
    • Alderon Resources – Kami, Canada
    • Baffinland Iron Mines – Mary River (Phase 2), Canada
    • Rio Tinto and Chinalco – Simandou, Guinea
    • What about Indian exports?
    • Can Chinese domestic iron ore supply return?
    • The scrap for a spot in the furnace
    • Improved steel market to support iron ore prices from acute falls
    • Will stock depletion continue for a fourth month?
    • Upside risk to our (medium term) steel demand forecast
    • Neutral risk to our steel capacity/production forecast
    • Upside risk to our domestic iron ore production forecast
    • Downside risk to our long term iron ore import forecast
    • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • The Simandou project proposed infrastructure is in close proximity to protected areas
  • Major Chinese steel mill hot metal production
  • Approved greenfield iron ore run-of-mine capacity since 2018
  • Postcard from India
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, y/y change
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data February 2019.xls

    XLS 384.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2019

    ZIP 2.09 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2019

    ZIP 2.11 MB

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