Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2016

Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

Spot iron ore prices remained relatively stable in January with the TSI 62% index staying around US$41/t CFR. In the short-term, iron ore prices could be pushed up slightly, underpinned by improving steel mill margins and easing liquidity in China, as well as some temporary port closures in both Brazil and Australia due to pollution or weather issues. However, any gain in prices is expected to be short-lived, as market fundamentals have not changed. Chinese demand is set to have another year of decline, and we expect most production cuts will come from the contestable market where steel mills rely heavily on imported iron ore.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 361.91 KB 12 Pages, 7 Tables, 10 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile Jan 2016.xls XLS - 402.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Chinese demand will drop further in 2016.
    • Steel production ex-China down in 2015
    • China split: the contestable vs. non-contestable market
    • Did incentives push up port inventory?
    • The fall of non-traditional suppliers
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 17 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: y/y growth of steel production (2015/2014)
    • Table 1: Top 10 steel-making countries in 2015
    • Chart 2: Contestable vs. non-contestable market in China
    • Chart 3: Iron ore inventory and growth in imports
    • Chart 4: Share of Chinese iron ore imports by country
  • Prices
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q3-15 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore exports: Q3 year-on-year change
    • Iron ore imports: Q3 year-on-year change
    • Global exports of iron ore
    • Global imports of iron ore
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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