Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2017

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Report summary

Prices held this month at $80/t as buyers re-stocked prior to the Chinese New Year - iron ore stocks are now above 2014 peaks. These price levels are encouraging marginal producers to re-enter the market. Imports to China increased 7% year-on-year in 2016 to exceed one billion tonnes, and shipments from India have recommenced. But the fundamentals required to support prices at these levels are lacking. Destocking in the Chinese property sector will result in a decline in steel consumption and therefore hot-metal production. Consequently, we expect a drop in iron ore demand over the course of the year. We forecast prices to drop as demand stagnates and supply rises. Our Q1-17 forecast remains at $70/t CFR.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile January 2017.xls

    XLS 404.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2017

    PDF 374.17 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2017

    ZIP 555.08 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Chinese iron ore imports are increasing…
    • …But demand is set to ease
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 3: Iron ore price indices
  • Chart 4: Iron ore price vs CFR China cost
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Market structure: Image 1
  • Chart 2: Chinese imports of iron ore
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-16 year-on-year production change

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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