Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2018



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Report summary

Defiant iron ore prices held above $75/t CFR in January despite a fall in Chinese rebar prices – but why has the typically close price relationship between the two broken down? On the supply side of the market, Brazilian shipments have stuttered and Australian shipments have slowed – further supporting prices. And this month we saw plans for some Australian supply to exit the market – the first casualty of the two-tier quality divide?

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data January 2018.xls

    XLS 413.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2018

    PDF 380.37 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2018

    ZIP 566.74 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Blast furnace restarts and tight supply lift iron ore
    • Supply slowdown
    • Brazil - shipments stutter
    • Australian shipments take a hit in January
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:


  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)


  • FMG price discounts widened in 2017
  • Freight rates rose in 2017
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • What has supported iron ore prices in 2018?
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-17 year-on-year production change

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