This month's tragic headline news is the collapse of Vale's tailings dam located at the Corrego do Feijao iron ore mine in the state of Minas Gerais. Our initial thoughts on the market impact are discussed in this note, but at the time of writing there are far more questions than answers. Given Vale's intention to decommission all of its upstream tailings dams, we provisionally estimate a net loss to seaborne supply of at least 20 million tonnes in 2019. However, any estimate at this stage is fraught with uncertainty and depends partly on the extent to which inventory can be drawn down across Vale's stockpiles in Brazil, Malaysia and China. The knee-jerk reaction from the market was a $10/t jump in prices to $85/t CFR. We have raised our Q1-19 price forecast to $80/t CFR (previously $68/t). We will review our longer term forecasts as the situation in Minas Gerais evolves.