Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2017


Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2017

Report summary

A trio of factors boosted iron ore prices this month; traders continued to build stockpiles, Chinese domestic production tightened and induction furnace closures shifted some production to the more iron ore intensive BOF route. But longer term, the market appears structurally oversupplied with future seaborne supply additions exceeding demand growth. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2017 PDF - 394.90 KB 13 Pages, 6 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Iron ore STO Datafile July 2017.xls XLS - 409.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Robust demand…
    • … Countered by oversupply
  • Prices
    • Another price rally, supported by three factors
      • 1) Stock build
      • 2) Tight domestic iron ore supply
      • 3) Induction furnace closures
        • Key quarterly forecast
        • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • While demand stagnates, an additional ~50 million tonnes of seaborne supply is due to come online this year and next...
    • The price discount for 58% Fe material has remained high…
    • …this is impacting FMG's realised price
  • Prices
    • Traders are rapidly increasing stock levels
    • Scrap has reached the top of its price range
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q2-17 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
    • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
    • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
    • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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