Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2019

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30 July 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2019

Report summary

Iron ore’s meteoric rise continued through July, with the benchmark 62% Fe index averaging $120/t CFR, a fresh five year high. Having started the year at $75/t CFR, iron ore has now risen by 60%, a phenomenal and quite unexpected performance. Chinese rebar prices gained 5% over the same period while Australian coking coal is down 5%. Where to from here? On balance we believe the case for monthly average prices holding above $120/t CFR is increasingly hard to justify and we forecast mild downward pressure on prices through August.

Table of contents

  • Iron ore's "big three" – production down almost 60Mt in H1-19
  • Chinese hot metal – still hot!
  • Are Tangshan restrictions affecting national hot metal production?
  • Steel margin squeeze – EAF is hardest hit
    • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Postcard from Jiangsu and Anhui
  • Chinese domestic miners and concentrate makers have been positively increasing production to capture the benefits of surging seaborne iron ore prices this year
  • Chinese port inventory finally started to stabilise after a four-month free fall
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Quarterly 62% Fe fines forecast and quality spreads
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data July 2019.xls

    XLS 398.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2019

    PDF 1.49 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2019

    ZIP 1.46 MB

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