Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2016

Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

The TSI 62% index dropped further in June to $51/t CFR bringing the Q2 average to $55/t. The price volatility has been much lower as the market arrived at its current weak balance. Our H2-16 price forecast remains unchanged at $49/t CFR. We do not expect prices to rise again to the peak level seen in April and the low point of this year is expected in Q4.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 385.36 KB 13 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile June 2016.xls XLS - 402.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Chinese steel demand weakening further, but production holds
    • Tangshan trip takeaways
      • Steel mill margins peaked in April
      • Over-capacity, overstated
      • Changes in the burden mix
    • Chinese iron ore imports still rising
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Chinese steel demand continued to slow down.
    • Chart 2: Steel mill margin and iron ore price
    • Chart 3: BF burden mix in China
    • Chart 4: Chinese iron ore demand growth by product
  • Prices
    • Chart 5: Iron ore prices: 62% Fe vs. 58% Fe
    • Chart 6: Lump premium vs. pellet premium
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q1-16 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore exports: Q1 year-on-year change
    • Iron ore imports: Q1 year-on-year change
    • Global exports of iron ore
    • Global imports of iron ore
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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