Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

It has been a volatile month for iron ore prices. Despite closing the month above $64/tonne, the June average price of 62% Fe material was $57/tonne – a 7% month-on-month decline. This is slightly above our Q3 forecast price of $55/tonne. With seaborne supply plentiful, Chinese domestic supply becoming increasingly resilient, and global demand growth slowing, there is scope for further price falls.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile June 2017.xls

    XLS 409.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 367.83 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 544.28 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Record global crude steel output
    • Seaborne supply of iron ore has never been higher
    • Where will supply reductions come from?
    • Low-grade ores hit hardest
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 20 images and tables including:

Images

  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Global crude steel output is performing well…
  • …with Chinese output up 3.9% year-to-May
  • EU output is up 4.1% year-to-May but from a low base year…
  • …US gains are also from a low base and output remains below five year averages
  • Sub-60% Fe grade ore supply has kept pace with Chinese demand while +60% Fe material has not
  • The premia for 65% Fe ores has ballooned to 27% of the 62% Fe index
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q1-17 year-on-year production change

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2

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