Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2019

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27 June 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2019

Report summary

Another month, another five year high for iron ore. June's price of $109/t CFR lifts the Q2-19 average to almost exactly $100/t CFR. The last time we saw a quarterly average price of $100/t + was Q2-14, the tail-end of the great iron ore boom. How long can the good times last? Certainly through July, as Chinese mills show no immediate sign of slowing purchases in response to deteriorating margins. But there will come a point where steel mills' ability to pay caps the upside for iron ore pricing. For this reason we peg our Q3-19 price forecast at $95/t CFR marginally below the $100/t Q2-19 average.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Australian exports of iron ore
  • Brazilian exports of iron ore
  • Chinese steel margin squeeze intensifies
  • BOF producers take the biggest hit as hot metal cost surges
  • Estimated affected hot metal production and iron ore demand
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Quarterly 62% Fe fines forecast and quality spreads
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data June 2019.xls

    XLS 648.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2019

    PDF 1.45 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook June 2019

    ZIP 1.52 MB

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