Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2017

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Report summary

Iron ore took another big hit in May starting the month at $70/t and finishing at $58/t. The benchmark 62% index has now dropped 40% since peaking at $95/t in mid February. Having fallen so far so fast calling iron ore's next move is no longer the one way bet that it was in March and April. But fundamentally we think the price correction has further to run as steel production growth moderates over the coming months at a time when growth in low cost seaborne supply is accelerating.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile May 2017.xls

    XLS 409.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2017

    PDF 417.62 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2017

    ZIP 600.38 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
  • Prices
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 3: Implied mill margin
  • Chart 4: Iron ore price
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: port stocks – high and rising!
  • Chart 2: Australia's market share in China has peaked.
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q1-17 year-on-year production change

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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