Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2019

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30 May 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2019

Report summary

This time last month iron ore was in the mid-$90/t range and we suggested April would mark the peak of the current price cycle. Market developments in May have proved us wrong, with the 62% index averaging $99/t CFR, a new five year high. Our working assumption is $100/t iron ore in June, giving a Q2-19 average of $97/t CFR. Brazilian supply remains the wildcard for iron ore. On the demand side all eyes remain focused on the extent to which Beijing stimulates its steel intensive infrastructure and property sectors in H2-19.

Table of contents

    • China: steel and hot metal hit record highs
    • Environmental restrictions in Tangshan fail to stifle national growth
    • Steel margins remain strong, with EAF's closing the gap on BOF's
    • Stock draw-down
  • Supply - Brazilian woes, compounded by an Australian cyclone
  • Chinese miners – rising to the occasion
    • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Exports from Australia and Brazil: down approx. 20 million tonnes (ytd)
  • Imports to China: down approx. 20 million tonnes (ytd)
  • China's domestic iron ore mine utilisation rates by mine size
  • Domestic captive iron ore concentrate production at Huaxia Jianlong
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Quarterly 62% Fe fines forecast and quality spreads
  • Blast furnace capacity exposed to Tangshan environmental closures in Q2-Q3 2019
  • Cost of rebar (RMB/t, excl. VAT)
  • Scrap/iron ore price ratio
  • Blast furnace capacity utilisation rates in Tangshan and China
  • China's imported iron ore inventory at major ports
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data May 2019.xls

    XLS 400.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2019

    ZIP 1.45 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2019

    ZIP 1.45 MB

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