Commodity market report
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14 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2015

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2015

Report summary

Spot iron ore prices hit new lows in late November with the TSI 62% index breaking below $43/t for the first time ever and November's average of $46/t the lowest monthly average on record. The usual pre-winter stock build has yet to materialise as steelmakers around the world have severe cash constraints and little incentive to restock in a falling market. The tragic incident at Samarco's tailings dam could remove 30Mtpy of high grade pellets from the market indefinitely but so far there has been little if any price response. With seasonal factors weighing on an already depressed Chinese construction sector and ample supply of low cost sinter fines from the Australian majors, a return to $50/t iron ore seems unlikely and prices in the mid/low $40/t range could become a familiar sight in 2016.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2015 PDF - 374.47 KB 14 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • IOMS Datafile November 2015.xls XLS - 402.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Spotlight on Samarco
      • Who can fill the gap?
      • Upside risk for pellet premiums?
    • Chinese imports switch into reverse
    • Little improvement in the world ex-China
  • Prices
    • Iron ore freight market update
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Samarco's share of global pellet exports
    • Chart 2: Samarco exports by destination
    • Chart 3: Chinese imports of iron ore
    • Chart 4: Australia and Brazil, market share in China
  • Prices
    • Chart 5: Iron ore price and Australian dollar
    • Chart 6: Pellet premium and lump premium
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q3-15 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore exports: Q3 year-on-year change
    • Iron ore imports: Q3 year-on-year change
    • Global exports of iron ore
    • Global imports of iron ore
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
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