Commodity market report

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

A remarkable month for iron ore with prices hitting two year highs at $80/t.The global asset allocation story has played a big part in the latest rally with iron ore benefiting along with most industrial metals and minerals as money switched out of bonds into commodities before a sharp reversal of this flow on the final day of the month as investors took profits. Steel specific factors have also been supportive notably the knock on effect of high coal/coke costs and Beijing's commitment to steel capacity closures.But the coal/coke "cost push" story has largely run its course and steel mill margins are under pressure again. This will inevitably feed through to iron ore pricing.Our revised forecast for Q4 16 is $67/t giving an annual average price of $57/t marginally above last year's price of $55/t. Not many picked that at the start of the year!

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore STO Datafile November 2016.xls

    XLS 404.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 464.27 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 645.71 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Raw material costs and capacity closures remain at the fore.
    • Supply side response to higher prices
    • Good times for miners – while it lasts!
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:


  • Chart 3: Iron ore prices: 62% Fe vs. 65% Fe
  • Chart 4: FMG realised price
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: Change in global exports of iron ore
  • Chart 2: Iron ore price vs. cost
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-16 year-on-year production change


  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

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