Commodity market report
| |
12 Pages

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016


Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016

Report summary


A remarkable month for iron ore with prices hitting two year highs at $80/t. The global asset allocation story has played a big part in the latest rally, with iron ore benefiting along with most industrial metals and minerals as money switched out of bonds into commodities, before a sharp reversal of this flow on the final day of the month as investors took profits. Steel specific factors have also been supportive – notably the knock-on effect of high coal/coke costs and Beijing's commitment to steel capacity closures. But the coal/coke "cost-push" story has largely run its course and steel mill margins are under pressure again. This will inevitably feed through to iron ore pricing. Our revised forecast for Q4-16 is $67/t, giving an annual average price of $57/t - marginally above last year's price of $55/t. Not many picked that at the start of the year!

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2016 PDF - 464.27 KB 12 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • Iron ore STO Datafile November 2016.xls XLS - 404.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Raw material costs and capacity closures remain at the fore.
    • Supply side response to higher prices
    • Good times for miners – while it lasts!
  • Prices
    • Key quarterly forecast
    • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Key companies
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key forecast data
  • Market structure
    • Chart 1: Change in global exports of iron ore
    • Chart 2: Iron ore price vs. cost
  • Prices
    • Chart 3: Iron ore prices: 62% Fe vs. 65% Fe
    • Chart 4: FMG realised price
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies
    • Key companies: Table 1
    • Quarterly mine production
    • Q3-16 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
    • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
    • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
    • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
    • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.