Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2017

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Report summary

After a two month downward drift, an unexpected show of strength in late November lifted iron ore prices towards $70/t CFR by the end of the month. This mini-rally is unsustainable and we still think prices need to fall below $60/t CFR to squeeze out excess capacity. But persistent tightness in the Chinese steel market should continue to support prices in the short term, delaying the inevitable correction until early next year.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data November 2017.xls

    XLS 410.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2017

    PDF 498.40 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2017

    ZIP 668.70 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • 2 + 26 = higher iron ore price!
    • Chinese imports take a dive in October
    • Indian exports – exceeding expectations
    • A surprise rise
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Key forecast data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

Images

  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chinese imports of iron ore
  • Share of Chinese imports
  • Prices rising, premium falling
  • High grade loses some of its shine
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q3-17 year-on-year production change

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