Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2018

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29 November 2018

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2018

Report summary

The 62% Fe iron ore fines benchmark price dropped to a four-month low in November, just below $65/t CFR as the margin squeeze on Chinese steel mills intensified. Prices for high grade sinter fines, concentrates and direct charge feed have been particularly hard hit as purchasing managers re-focus on cost control at the expense of maximising productivity. We believe November's sell-off has largely run its course, but with steel mill margins in decline and dark clouds on the economic horizon, it's hard to see a short term catalyst that could push prices back above $70/t CFR.

Table of contents

  • The view from Beijing – still murky!
  • Chinese imports – on track for first annual fall since 2010
    • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • BF utilisation rates in Tangshan and China's major steel mills
  • Comparison of major Chinese steel mill BF utilisation rates
  • China: imports of iron ore
  • China: composition of iron ore consumption
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data November 2018.xls

    XLS 377.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2018

    PDF 969.20 KB

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    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2018

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