Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2019

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28 November 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2019

Report summary

Iron ore's strong performance continues, with the 62% Fe index averaging $85/t CFR in November. Improving steel mill margins and rising blast furnace utilisation were the key (positive) drivers. We expect both to reverse in December. But with seaborne supply of iron ore still delicately poised, the downside risk for prices is limited. We forecast a December average price of $80/t CFR, giving a Q4-19 average of $85/t CFR.

Table of contents

  • Chinese iron ore consumption: is winter coming?
  • High grade iron ore premiums – back from the brink
  • JSW Steel - greater captive control of iron ore, puts imports at risk.
  • An unexpected price bounce – led by high grade fines
  • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Steel mill margin improvement in November supports premium for high grade fines.
  • Lower arrivals of high grade sinter fines from Brazil has contributed to the wider price spread in November.
  • Prices ease in November, but not by much.
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Chinese iron ore imports, Mt per day
  • Chinese iron ore imports by sourcing countries
  • Iron ore loadings from West Australia
  • Chinese iron ore port inventory
  • Chinese blast furnace utilisation rate
  • Chinese monthly hot metal production
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly mine production by company
  • Year-on-year change in quarterly production by company (100% basis)
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data November 2019.xls

    XLS 400.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2019

    ZIP 1.51 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook November 2019

    ZIP 1.49 MB

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