Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2018

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31 October 2018

Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2018

Report summary

October was a surprisingly strong month for iron ore with the benchmark 62% Fe index rallying to six month highs, spurred by persistently strong steel margins in China and relatively tight seaborne supply. The key driver over the next few months is the timing and magnitude of winter production cuts at Chinese steel mills. This year greater autonomy for policy implementation has been granted at a local/provincial level making it harder to predict the potential impact on steel production and iron ore demand.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Let the cuts commence
      • What about Chinese domestic iron ore production?
    • Dry bulk freight market
  • Key companies
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Chinese hot metal capacity exposure to winter cut policy
  • Tangshan and Handan hot metal capacity cut in the winter of 2017-18 and 2018-19
  • Winter-closure affected hot metal production in the Blue-sky Region in 2018
  • Selected Chinese domestic concentrate production 2018
  • Price spreads driven by rebar margins.
  • Rising Brazilian exports to China – downward pressure on premiums in Q4.
  • Spot pellet premiums to China – past the peak?
  • India – the swing supplier of pellets to China.

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data October 2018.xls

    XLS 377.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2018

    PDF 1016.86 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2018

    ZIP 1.01 MB

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