Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2019

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31 October 2019

Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2019

Report summary

Iron ore has made a moderate but significant move down, taking its cue from a further deterioration in the outlook for steel prices and profitability. For once, its not all about China. Pressure on seaborne demand and pricing (particularly pellets) is compounded by a swathe of European blast furnace curtailments. The final two months of 2019 are shaping up to be challenging for iron ore. At times like this market observers often get too bearish too soon. But we see no reason to cut our short term price forecast while supply remains so delicately poised. Our Q4-19 forecast for 62% Fe fines is $85/t CFR.

Table of contents

  • Weaker everywhere
  • Chinese hot metal – still strong but for how long?
    • Rising domestic concentrate supply has incentivised pellet production and consumption:
    • Lower seaborne pellet premiums have boosted imports:
  • Pellet consumption ex-China: under pressure.
  • The return of Samarco – but not as we knew it!
  • Update on Indian auctions and the transition towards captive mining.
  • Prices and premiums both drift lower
  • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Atlantic Basin pellet premiums take a big hit - worse to come!
  • Indian iron ore bids - the story so far.
  • FMG average revenue/tonne falls in Q3-19.
  • High grade premium - under pressure.
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, y/y change
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Annual iron ore exports forecast by country/region
  • Annual iron ore imports forecast by country/region
  • Annual hot metal output forecast by country/region
  • Quarterly mine production by company
  • Year-on-year change in quarterly production by company (100% basis)
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2019

    PDF 1.54 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2019

    ZIP 1.30 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data October 2019.xls

    XLS 400.00 KB

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