Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2017

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24 March 2017

Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2017

Report summary

Asian automotive demand will power the growth in global lead demand well into the future. Weakening Chinese in the medium term will only temporarily slow this process but has been offset by strong growth in European battery production, particularly in lower-cost countries in the east of the continent. The nearby shortfall in primary supply cannot be balanced by increased secondary output and concentrate stocks will fall to critically low levels. This restricted refined metal supply will see prices peaking over $2500/t in late 2017 and early 2018. The increased mine output encouraged by these higher prices will return the refined market into balance by 2018/2019. However, stocks of refined metal and, particularly, concentrates will take longer to fully recover.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Lead market poised for deeper deficit before prices prompt increased supply
    • Long-term outlook
    • Overview
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • India
      • Japan
        • con
        • sumption
      • Europe
      • North America
      • US
      • Mexico
      • Latin America
      • Other regions
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
        • Oceania lead mine capability
        • Smelter and refinery Production
      • Africa
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
  • Global primary versus secondary refined lead output
  • Global refined lead stocks and price
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Global lead consumption
  • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Auto and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers stay significant but 3-wheelers flat
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • European lead consumption
  • Auto replacement sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, automotive OE starts decline
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • North American lead consumption
  • Latin American lead consumption
  • Middle East
  • Demand: Table 7
  • African lead mine capability
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack lead LTO Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 749.13 KB

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 721.82 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 494.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 138.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 551.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 156.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 5.38 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 2.77 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 384.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2017

    PDF 913.54 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2017

    ZIP 4.84 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 86.70 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 118.44 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 580.48 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 215.48 KB