Asian automotive demand will power the growth in global lead demand well into the future. Weakening Chinese in the medium term will only temporarily slow this process but has been offset by strong growth in European battery production particularly in lower cost countries in the east of the continent. The nearby shortfall in primary supply cannot be balanced by increased secondary output and concentrate stocks will fall to critically low levels. This restricted refined metal supply will see prices peaking over $2500/t in late 2017 and early 2018. The increased mine output encouraged by these higher prices will return the refined market into balance by 2018/2019. However stocks of refined metal and particularly concentrates will take longer to fully recover.