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Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2018

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26 March 2018

Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2018

Report summary

The short-term drivers of the lead market remain predominantly on the supply side. Market-driven mine production curtailments are not being rescinded quickly, and plans for Paroo Station to restart in 2020 have still not gained a positive investment decision. However, additional supply will continue to emerge through the medium-term (2018-2021) in response to today's higher lead (and zinc) prices and return stocks to more comfortable levels. The medium-term will also see demand re-emerging as the main driver in the market. While the adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) is often perceived to be the greatest threat, the cut in our medium-term consumption forecast reflects an accelerated decline in China's ebike demand. We continue to believe that the consequential effects on lead demand of the adoption of hybrids and EVs will be limited for at least the next decade.

Table of contents

    • Key points
    • Demand – what's changed?
    • Supply - what's changed?
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • India
      • Japan
      • Europe
      • North America
      • US
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
      • Other regions
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
        • Oceania lead mine capability
      • Russia and the Caspian
        • Changes to possible projects listing
        • Smelter and refinery Production
          • Global primary and secondary production and adjustments
      • Africa
      • Asia
        • Asian refined lead production
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Refined lead market in slow transition from modest deficit to modest surplus
      • Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
    • Long-term outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

  • Demand: Image 1
  • Global refined lead stocks and price
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  • Automotive demand finally tops ebikes consumption
  • Industrial batteries to dominate in longer term
  • Auto and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers stay significant but 3-wheelers flat
  • Even spread of demand across sectors
  • Automotive to overtake industrial sector
  • Asian lead consumption
  • Industrial dominates as autos increasingly imported
  • Auto replacement further declines due to imports
  • European lead consumption
  • Auto replacement sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, automotive OE starts decline
  • US end use by sector
  • Auto replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Middle East lead consumption
  • Oceania lead consumption
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle Eastern lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
  • Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • African refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Global primary versus secondary refined lead output
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Requirement for and sources of new mine production
  • Global refined lead production capability
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.45 MB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 517.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 140.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 414.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 71.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 5.13 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 2.76 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.25 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 386.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2018

    PDF 836.71 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2018

    ZIP 4.60 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 84.42 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 496.10 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 219.39 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 120.70 KB

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