The short-term drivers of the lead market remain predominantly on the supply side. Market-driven mine production curtailments are not being rescinded quickly, and plans for Paroo Station to restart in 2020 have still not gained a positive investment decision. However, additional supply will continue to emerge through the medium-term (2018-2021) in response to today's higher lead (and zinc) prices and return stocks to more comfortable levels. The medium-term will also see demand re-emerging as the main driver in the market. While the adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) is often perceived to be the greatest threat, the cut in our medium-term consumption forecast reflects an accelerated decline in China's ebike demand. We continue to believe that the consequential effects on lead demand of the adoption of hybrids and EVs will be limited for at least the next decade.