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What’s the key takeaway from this report?
Years of severe tightness in lead concentrate supplies are coming to an end as the mine supply response to the higher prices of recent years finally kicks in. This will combine with softening lead demand growth in the medium term to overturn the large refined lead deficits of the past four years and transition the market into substantial surpluses.
What key questions does this report answer?
- As the market adjusts, will more smelter capacity be required?
- Which sectors have pulled down Chinese lead demand?
- How will the price react to a changing lead metal market?
This report also comes with charts and data sets, including this one, which forecasts global consumption patterns out to 2040.
Report summary
The significant lead concentrate supply tightness of recent years now eases with new mine production coming stream, leading to meaningful surpluses from 2021. Refined lead availability recovers after four years of substantial deficits from this additional primary supply plus weaker Chinese consumption, pushing the lead metal market balance into surplus beyond this year. We forecast weaker prices in the medium and longer term with softer lead demand growth from Chinese auto and ebike sectors, although general ROW performance remains good. Mine supply growth will average 3.7% p.a. from 2019-2023 but with adequate refining capacity for smelters to consume this additional feed. Total global stocks of refined metal are nevertheless slow to recover and will remain at historical lows until 2021, after which increased lead concentrate supply will rapidly restore normal – and then excessive – stock levels in terms of days of consumption.
Table of contents
- Key points
- Demand – what's changed?
- Supply - what's changed?
-
Mine Production
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian lead mine capability
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Oceania lead mine capability
- Russia and the Caspian
- Changes to projects listing
-
Smelter and refinery Production
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian refined lead production
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Overview
-
Review and forecast by region
- Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- US
- Mexico
- Latin America
- Other regions
-
Principal Uses of Lead
- Batteries
- Non-Battery
- Refined lead market transitions from recent tightness into meaningful surpluses
- Long-term outlook
Tables and charts
This report includes 44 images and tables including:
- Global refined lead production capability
- Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
- Global lead consumption
- Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
- Global primary versus secondary refined lead output
- Global refined lead stocks and price
- African lead mine capability
- European lead mine capability
- Latin American lead mine capability
- Middle Eastern lead mine capability
- North American lead mine capability
- Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
- Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
- Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
- Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
- African refined lead production
- European refined lead production
- Latin American refined lead production
- Middle East refined lead production
- North American refined lead production
- Oceania refined lead production
- Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
- Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
- Automotive demand accelerates past ebikes
- Industrial batteries grow strongly in longer term
- Auto and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers stay significant but 3-wheelers flat
- Even spread of demand across sectors
- Automotive to overtake industrial sector
- Asian lead consumption
- Industrial dominates as autos increasingly imported
- Auto replacement further declines due to imports
- European lead consumption
- Auto OE sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, automotive replacement starts decline
- US end use by sector
- Auto OE and replacement offset weaker sectors
- North American lead consumption
- Latin American lead consumption
- Middle East lead consumption
- Oceania lead consumption
What's included
This report contains:
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