Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2020
The coronavirus pandemic dominates short-term supply and demand changes but also impacts the medium term for lead markets. We have revised our mine output down by 8.2% for this year with the temporary idling of many mines across the world. But the greater proportion of supply coming from secondary sources - which are less affected by the crisis - means demand is relatively even more curtailed. We have reduced global consumption by 670 kt for this year, which contributes to a forecast 690 kt surplus in 2020. However, much of this is demand deferral, rather than destruction, leading to a rebound of +7.4% year-on-year growth in 2021. Medium- and long-term growth prospects still look healthy at 1.4% pa and 1.8% pa respectively.