Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2020

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Report summary

The coronavirus pandemic dominates short-term supply and demand changes but also impacts the medium term for lead markets. We have revised our mine output down by 8.2% for this year with the temporary idling of many mines across the world. But the greater proportion of supply coming from secondary sources - which are less affected by the crisis - means demand is relatively even more curtailed. We have reduced global consumption by 670 kt for this year, which contributes to a forecast 690 kt surplus in 2020. However, much of this is demand deferral, rather than destruction, leading to a rebound of +7.4% year-on-year growth in 2021. Medium- and long-term growth prospects still look healthy at 1.4% pa and 1.8% pa respectively.

Demand outlook
Supply outlook
Market balance and price outlook
Changes since Q4 2019
- Market and demand changes
- Supply-side changes
Beyond coronavirus: supply chain diversification in the long run
Overview
Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
Europe
North America
- US
- Mexico
Latin America
Other regions
Regional mine production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian lead mine capability
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Oceania lead mine capability
- Russia and the Caspian
- Changes to projects listing
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian refined lead production
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

Global lead demand, 1990 to 2040
Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
Global refined lead stocks and price

Global lead consumption
Industrial dominates with increased auto imports
Auto replacement further declines due to imports
European lead consumption
Latin American lead consumption
Middle East lead consumption
Oceania lead consumption
Global refined lead production capability
Lead key forecasts
Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
Automotive demand now clearly ahead of ebikes
Industrial use continues to grow; autos dominate
Automotive and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers remain significant with a moderate in 3-wheelers
Even distribution of demand across sectors
Automotive to overtake industrial sector
Asian lead consumption
Automotive replacement and stationary in growth, auto OE and motive power in decline
US end-use by sector
Stationary and auto replacement offset weaker sectors
North American lead consumption
African lead mine capability
European lead mine capability
Latin American lead mine capability
Middle Eastern lead mine capability
North American lead mine capability
Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
African refined lead production
European refined lead production
Latin American refined lead production
Middle East refined lead production
North American refined lead production
Oceania refined lead production
Russia and the Caspian refined lead production