Supply side shortages will remain prominent in the medium term. Growth in mine supply will be insufficient to meet the requirements of primary smelters and large cutbacks will result, taking primary growth to a multi-year low in 2016. Secondary output also faces cutbacks and total refined growth over the period to 2017 will fall to 3.7% p.a. With global demand growth over the period near 4% p.a, a period of large refined deficits looms, with prices still expected to peak at over $2500/t in 2017
This report includes 12 file(s)
Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2014 PDF - 743.65 KB 37 Pages, 27 Tables, 15 Figures
Lead Tables LTO Q2 2014.pdf PDF - 1.60 MB
Slide pack lead LTO Q2 2014.pdf PDF - 733.35 KB
Demand main changes lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 142.00 KB
Demand analysis lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 455.00 KB
Supply main changes lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 491.50 KB
Production rankings lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 219.50 KB
Equity Production lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 4.18 MB
Mine analysis lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 1.92 MB
Smelter analysis lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 1.14 MB
Refinery analysis lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 1.13 MB
Market balance and prices lead LTO Q2 2014.xls XLS - 262.00 KB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.
From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.
We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.
Output in the region to remain stable over the forecast period Regional output will increase marginally in the short term with three new mines, Berkara in Kazakhstan and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe and Noion Tologsky in Russia. This will continue until 2016 when the Zhanalyk mine in Kazakhstan and Goltsovoye mine in Russia are forecast to close. Output from the region will fall again in 2025 when Khandiza in Uzbekistan and Rubtsobsky in Russia are forecast to close.
Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
Smelter and refinery production
Russia and the Caspian
In this report there are 42 tables or charts, including:
Demand: Table 1
Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
Ebikes still dominate in medium term
Vehicles overtake ebikes longer term
Auto sector shows strongest growth but inverters will remain key
Indian lead demand by sector
Vehicles to overtake industrial sector
Demand: Table 2
Demand dominated by industrial
Auto replacement to decline on imports
European lead consumption
Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
US end use by sector
SLI replacement to offset weaker sectors
Demand: Table 4
Latin American lead consumption
African lead mine production
Asian lead mine production
European lead mine production
Latin American lead mine production
Middle East lead mine production
Supply: Table 6
Oceania lead mine production
Russia and the Caspian lead mine production
Global lead mine production capability change
Global mine production capability and market adjustment
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Commodity market report | Jun 2014
Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2014
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