Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2016

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27 June 2016

Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

From a balanced market in 2015, undersupply of primary material and enduring tightness in secondary feed will start to bite later in 2016, pushing the supply-demand balance into deficit for this year, followed by a larger deficit in 2017. This catalyst for rising prices will trigger increased mine production which will return the market balance to a small surplus by 2018. Medium-term global growth is steady at 3.1% pa, with Asian vehicle demand being the most significant driver for this increased demand, as global economies continue the process of recovery and stability appears to have been largely re-established in China.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Market moves into deficit in coming years after flat balance in 2015
      • Global refined lead balance and price
      • Primary v secondary output
    • Long-term outlook
      • Global price and stocks
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
      • India
        • Auto sector shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers and industrial remain significant
      • Japan
        • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
        • European lead consumption
      • North America
      • US
        • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
        • Principal Uses of Lead
          • Batteries
          • Non-Battery
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russian and the Caspian
        • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle East lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Image 9
  • US end use by sector
  • SLI replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Global lead mine production capability change
  • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Supply: Table 23

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack lead LTO Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 706.30 KB

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.63 MB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 502.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 148.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 550.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 222.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 4.48 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 2.65 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 1.28 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 377.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2016

    PDF 845.73 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2016

    ZIP 5.19 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 82.17 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 114.44 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 515.95 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 218.89 KB

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