Commodity market report
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35 Pages

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014

Report summary

The period to 2017 will be characterised by refined market deficits and rising prices. Mine supply will be insufficient to meet primary smelter demand and capacity utilisation will stay below 80%. Secondary smelter production growth is forecast to be robust as higher prices encourage increased scrap battery recycling rates. Nonetheless we forecast four years of global refined deficits, a very tight refined market and a price peak of $2550/t in 2017.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 734.91 KB 35 Pages, 27 Tables, 14 Figures
  • Lead Tables LTO Q3 2014.pdf PDF - 1.50 MB
  • Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2014.pdf PDF - 717.68 KB
  • Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 145.00 KB
  • Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 471.00 KB
  • Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 474.50 KB
  • Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 219.50 KB
  • Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 4.21 MB
  • Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 2.38 MB
  • Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 1.24 MB
  • Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 1.22 MB
  • Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 295.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • India
      • Japan
      • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Mexico
      • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
  • Supply
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russian and the Caspian
      • Output in the region to remain stable over the forecast period Regional output will increase marginally in the short term with three new mines, Berkara in Kazakhstan and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe and Noion Tologsky in Russia. This will continue until 2016 when the Zhanalyk mine in Kazakhstan and Goltsovoye mine in Russia are forecast to close. Output from the region will fall again in 2020, 2027 and 2030 when the Rubtsobsky and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe mines in Russia and Khandiza mine Uzbekistan are forecast to close respectively.
    • Smelter and refinery production
      • Africa
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global refined lead balance and price

In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Auto sector shows strongest growth but inverters will remain key
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • European lead consumption
    • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Latin American lead consumption
  • Supply
    • African lead mine capability
    • Asian lead mine capability
    • European lead mine capability
    • Latin American lead mine capability
    • Middle East lead mine capability
    • North American lead mine capability
    • Oceania lead mine capability
    • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
    • Global lead mine production capability change
    • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
    • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
    • Changes to possible projects listing
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Global refined lead production capability
    • African refined lead production
    • New Chinese primary operations (forecast production, kt Pb)
    • Asian refined lead production
    • European refined lead production
    • Latin American refined lead production
    • Middle East refined lead production
    • North American refined lead production
    • Oceania refined lead production
    • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Primary v secondary output
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
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