Commodity market report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014

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Report summary

The period to 2017 will be characterised by refined market deficits and rising prices. Mine supply will be insufficient to meet primary smelter demand and capacity utilisation will stay below 80%. Secondary smelter production growth is forecast to be robust as higher prices encourage increased scrap battery recycling rates. Nonetheless we forecast four years of global refined deficits, a very tight refined market and a price peak of $2550/t in 2017.

What's included

This report contains

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russian and the Caspian
      • Output in the region to remain stable over the forecast period Regional output will increase marginally in the short term with three new mines, Berkara in Kazakhstan and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe and Noion Tologsky in Russia. This will continue until 2016 when the Zhanalyk mine in Kazakhstan and Goltsovoye mine in Russia are forecast to close. Output from the region will fall again in 2020, 2027 and 2030 when the Rubtsobsky and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe mines in Russia and Khandiza mine Uzbekistan are forecast to close respectively.
      • Africa
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Global refined lead balance and price

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:


  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Primary v secondary output
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Auto sector shows strongest growth but inverters will remain key
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Supply: Image 1


  • Global refined lead production capability
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 2
  • European lead consumption
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Latin American lead consumption
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle East lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Oceania lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Global lead mine production capability change
  • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • Changes to possible projects listing
  • African refined lead production
  • New Chinese primary operations (forecast production, kt Pb)
  • Asian refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

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