The period to 2017 will be characterised by refined market deficits and rising prices. Mine supply will be insufficient to meet primary smelter demand and capacity utilisation will stay below 80%. Secondary smelter production growth is forecast to be robust as higher prices encourage increased scrap battery recycling rates. Nonetheless we forecast four years of global refined deficits, a very tight refined market and a price peak of $2550/t in 2017.
This report includes 12 file(s)
Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 734.91 KB 35 Pages, 27 Tables, 14 Figures
Lead Tables LTO Q3 2014.pdf PDF - 1.50 MB
Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2014.pdf PDF - 717.68 KB
Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 145.00 KB
Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 471.00 KB
Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 474.50 KB
Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 219.50 KB
Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 4.21 MB
Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 2.38 MB
Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 1.24 MB
Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 1.22 MB
Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 295.50 KB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.
From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.
We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.
Output in the region to remain stable over the forecast period Regional output will increase marginally in the short term with three new mines, Berkara in Kazakhstan and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe and Noion Tologsky in Russia. This will continue until 2016 when the Zhanalyk mine in Kazakhstan and Goltsovoye mine in Russia are forecast to close. Output from the region will fall again in 2020, 2027 and 2030 when the Rubtsobsky and Kyzyl Tashtygskoe mines in Russia and Khandiza mine Uzbekistan are forecast to close respectively.
Smelter and refinery production
Russia and the Caspian
Global refined lead balance and price
In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:
Demand: Table 1
Demand: Image 1
Demand: Image 2
Auto sector shows strongest growth but inverters will remain key
Demand: Image 4
Demand: Image 5
Demand: Table 2
Demand: Image 6
Demand: Image 7
European lead consumption
Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
Demand: Image 9
Demand: Image 10
Demand: Table 4
Latin American lead consumption
African lead mine capability
Asian lead mine capability
European lead mine capability
Latin American lead mine capability
Middle East lead mine capability
North American lead mine capability
Oceania lead mine capability
Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
Global lead mine production capability change
Global mine production capability and market adjustment
Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
Changes to possible projects listing
Supply: Image 1
Global refined lead production capability
African refined lead production
New Chinese primary operations (forecast production, kt Pb)
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.
Analyst Metal Mining Producer
Wood Mac has the highest quality data and is demanded by our staff.
Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company
Others can provide data but we value the quality of the Wood Mac analysis above other sources.
Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.
We work across every sector of oil, gas, power,renewables,chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.
Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.
At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.
Commodity market report | Sep 2014
Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2014
Have questions?Just let us know how to contact you and we will respond to you as soon as possible.