Commodity market report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2015

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Report summary

The refined lead market is finely balanced for 2015 following reductions in forecast consumption for this year eradicating the previous negative balance. However, significantly reduced mine supply will curtail primary smelter output and lead to sizeable deficits in 2016 and 2017, forcing prices higher. Combined with continuing scrap tightness keeping secondary raw material costs high, the commodity price will peak during 2018 before subsiding again as the market moves back into surplus from that year onwards. Medium-term global growth will be 3.1% p.a. as many economies continue the process of recovery and uncertainty surrounds the future growth rate of the Chinese economy.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 704.30 KB

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.62 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 157.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 533.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 552.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 226.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 4.95 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 2.69 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 329.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2015

    PDF 827.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2015

    ZIP 5.25 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 110.89 KB

  • Document


    PDF 512.80 KB

  • Document


    PDF 209.00 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:


  • Global refined lead balance and price
  • Primary v secondary output
  • Global price and stocks
  • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  • Ebikes still lead demand in medium term
  • Industrial batteries dominate longer term
  • Auto sector shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers and industrial remain significant
  • Indian lead demand by sector
  • Vehicles to overtake industrial sector
  • Demand dominated by industrial batteries
  • Auto replacement declining due to imports
  • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
  • US end use by sector
  • SLI replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Requirement for and sources of new mine production


  • Global lead consumption
  • Asian lead consumption
  • European lead consumption
  • North American lead consumption
  • Latin American lead consumption
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle East lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Oceania lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Global lead mine production capability change
  • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • Changes to possible projects listing
  • Global refined lead production capability
  • African refined lead production
  • New Chinese refined capacity (forecast production, kt Pb)
  • Asian refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

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