Inadequate mine supply in 2016 and 2017 will push markets into deficit in 2016 (-59kt) and 2017 (-66kt), as enduring tightness in scrap feed prevents secondary producers from making up the supply shortfall. This constraint on material availability will put strong upwards pressure on prices, forcing increases through 2017 to peak at $2450 (nominal $ terms) in early 2018. At this time, refined metal stocks are forecast to drop to a low of 37 days of consumption. After this point, increased primary production encouraged by higher prices will start to ease the tightness and restore a balanced market in 2018, then pushing it into surplus in the next years. Despite a further softening of China consumption, demand will resume robust growth in the medium term to average 3.1% pa growth globally and 5.1% pa in China. Long-term growth also remains healthy at 2.3% pa, driven by strong demand for automotive batteries and energy storage.