Inadequate mine supply in 2016 and 2017 will push markets into deficit in 2016 (-59kt) and 2017 (-66kt), as enduring tightness in scrap feed prevents secondary producers from making up the supply shortfall. This constraint on material availability will put strong upwards pressure on prices, forcing increases through 2017 to peak at $2450 (nominal $ terms) in early 2018. At this time, refined metal stocks are forecast to drop to a low of 37 days of consumption. After this point, increased primary production encouraged by higher prices will start to ease the tightness and restore a balanced market in 2018, then pushing it into surplus in the next years. Despite a further softening of China consumption, demand will resume robust growth in the medium term to average 3.1% pa growth globally and 5.1% pa in China. Long-term growth also remains healthy at 2.3% pa, driven by strong demand for automotive batteries and energy storage.
This report includes 12 file(s)
Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 858.15 KB 42 Pages, 30 Tables, 16 Figures
Lead Tables LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.61 MB
Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 494.00 KB
Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 145.50 KB
Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 540.00 KB
Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 223.00 KB
Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 5.33 MB
Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 2.62 MB
Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.25 MB
Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.22 MB
Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 407.00 KB
Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 765.03 KB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
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Commodity market report | Sep 2016
Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016
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