Commodity market report
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42 Pages

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

Inadequate mine supply in 2016 and 2017 will push markets into deficit in 2016 (-59kt) and 2017 (-66kt), as enduring tightness in scrap feed prevents secondary producers from making up the supply shortfall. This constraint on material availability will put strong upwards pressure on prices, forcing increases through 2017 to peak at $2450 (nominal $ terms) in early 2018. At this time, refined metal stocks are forecast to drop to a low of 37 days of consumption. After this point, increased primary production encouraged by higher prices will start to ease the tightness and restore a balanced market in 2018, then pushing it into surplus in the next years. Despite a further softening of China consumption, demand will resume robust growth in the medium term to average 3.1% pa growth globally and 5.1% pa in China. Long-term growth also remains healthy at 2.3% pa, driven by strong demand for automotive batteries and energy storage.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 858.15 KB 42 Pages, 30 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Lead Tables LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.61 MB
  • Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 494.00 KB
  • Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 145.50 KB
  • Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 540.00 KB
  • Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 223.00 KB
  • Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 5.33 MB
  • Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 2.62 MB
  • Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.25 MB
  • Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.22 MB
  • Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 407.00 KB
  • Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 765.03 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Undersupply of mined lead moves market into deficit for coming years
      • Global refined lead balance and price
      • Primary v secondary output
    • Long-term outlook
      • Global price and stocks
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
      • India
      • Japan
        • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
        • European lead consumption
      • North America
      • US
        • Auto replacement sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, auto OE starts decline
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
      • Other regions
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
  • Supply
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Asia
        • Asian lead mine capability
      • Europe
        • European lead mine capability
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead mine capability
      • Middle East
        • Middle Eastern lead mine capability
        • North American lead mine capability
      • Oceania
        • Oceania lead mine capability
        • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
        • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
        • Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
        • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
        • Smelter and refinery Production
          • Global refined lead production capability
          • Global primary and secondary production and adjustments
      • Africa
        • African refined lead production
      • Asia
      • Europe
        • European refined lead production
        • Latin American refined lead production
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian

In this report there are 46 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Auto and industrial sectors shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers remain significant
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 9
    • US end use by sector
    • Auto replacement to offset weaker sectors
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Middle East
    • Oceania
  • Supply
    • African lead mine capability
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Supply: Table 14
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 15
    • Supply: Table 16
    • Supply: Table 17
    • Supply: Table 18
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Middle East refined lead production
    • North American refined lead production
    • Oceania refined lead production
    • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
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