Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

27 September 2016

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27 September 2016

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

Inadequate mine supply in 2016 and 2017 will push markets into deficit in 2016 (-59kt) and 2017 (-66kt), as enduring tightness in scrap feed prevents secondary producers from making up the supply shortfall. This constraint on material availability will put strong upwards pressure on prices, forcing increases through 2017 to peak at $2450 (nominal $ terms) in early 2018. At this time, refined metal stocks are forecast to drop to a low of 37 days of consumption. After this point, increased primary production encouraged by higher prices will start to ease the tightness and restore a balanced market in 2018, then pushing it into surplus in the next years. Despite a further softening of China consumption, demand will resume robust growth in the medium term to average 3.1% pa growth globally and 5.1% pa in China. Long-term growth also remains healthy at 2.3% pa, driven by strong demand for automotive batteries and energy storage.

Executive summary
Supply-demand balances
- Undersupply of mined lead moves market into deficit for coming years
  - Global refined lead balance and price
  - Primary v secondary output
- Long-term outlook
  - Global price and stocks
Demand
- Overview
  - Global lead consumption
- Review and forecast by region
  - Asia
  - China
    - Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  - India
  - Japan
    - Asian lead consumption
  - Europe
    - European lead consumption
  - North America
  - US
    - Auto replacement sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, auto OE starts decline
  - Mexico
    - North American lead consumption
  - Latin America
    - Latin American lead consumption
  - Other regions
- Principal Uses of Lead
  - Batteries
  - Non-Battery
Supply
- Mine Production
  - Africa
  - Asia
    - Asian lead mine capability
  - Europe
    - European lead mine capability
  - Latin America
    - Latin American lead mine capability
  - Middle East
    - Middle Eastern lead mine capability
    - North American lead mine capability
  - Oceania
    - Oceania lead mine capability
    - Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
    - Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
    - Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
    - Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
    - Smelter and refinery Production
      - Global refined lead production capability
      - Global primary and secondary production and adjustments
  - Africa
    - African refined lead production
  - Asia
  - - New Chinese refined capacity (forecast production, kt Pb)
    - Asian refined lead production
  - Europe
    - European refined lead production
    - Latin American refined lead production
  - Middle East
  - North America
  - Oceania
  - Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

Supply-demand balances: Image 1
Supply-demand balances: Image 2
Supply-demand balances: Image 3

Demand: Table 1
Auto and industrial sectors shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers remain significant
Demand: Image 5
Demand: Image 6
Demand: Image 7
Demand: Image 8
Middle East
Oceania
African lead mine capability
Middle East refined lead production
North American refined lead production
Oceania refined lead production
Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
Demand: Image 1
Demand: Image 2
Demand: Image 3
Demand: Table 2
Demand: Table 3
Demand: Image 9
US end use by sector
Auto replacement to offset weaker sectors
Demand: Table 4
Demand: Table 5
Supply: Table 2
Supply: Table 3
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8
Supply: Table 9
Supply: Table 10
Supply: Table 11
Supply: Table 12
Supply: Image 1
Supply: Table 15
Supply: Table 16
Supply: Table 17
Supply: Table 18
Supply: Table 19
Supply: Table 13
Supply: Table 14
Supply: Image 2