Commodity market report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

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Report summary

Inadequate mine supply in 2016 and 2017 will push markets into deficit in 2016 ( 59kt) and 2017 ( 66kt) as enduring tightness in scrap feed prevents secondary producers from making up the supply shortfall. This constraint on material availability will put strong upwards pressure on prices forcing increases through 2017 to peak at $2450 (nominal $ terms) in early 2018. At this time refined metal stocks are forecast to drop to a low of 37 days of consumption. After this point increased primary production encouraged by higher prices will start to ease the tightness and restore a balanced market in 2018 then pushing it into surplus in the next years. Despite a further softening of China consumption demand will resume robust growth in the medium term to average 3.1% pa growth globally and 5.1% pa in China. Long term growth also remains healthy at 2.3% pa driven by strong demand for automotive batteries and energy storage.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q3 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.61 MB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 494.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 145.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 540.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 223.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 5.33 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 2.62 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1.25 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1.22 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 407.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

    PDF 858.15 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2016

    ZIP 5.49 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack lead LTO Q3 2016.pdf

    PDF 765.03 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.57 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 116.47 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 526.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 218.51 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Auto and industrial sectors shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers remain significant
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 9
  • US end use by sector
  • Auto replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Demand: Table 1
  • Middle East
  • Oceania
  • African lead mine capability
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14

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