Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2017

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29 September 2017

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2017

Report summary

The Global Lead Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the lead market out to 2035. The near- to medium-term critical issue remains the availability of concentrates - or lack therefore - to smelters and the limited ability of the secondary sector to compensate for this shortfall in primary supply due to an enduring tightness in scrap batteries. This is now transitioning into a refined lead shortage, becoming increasingly acute towards the end of this year and into next. The shortfall will continue to give impetus to sustained higher prices, which will in turn trigger development of new and restarted mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental growth in global demand.

Table of contents

    • Key points
    • Demand – what's changed?
    • Supply - what's changed?
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
      • India
      • Japan
        • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
        • European lead consumption
      • North America
      • US
        • Auto replacement and OE sectors stable, stationary provides medium-term growth
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
      • Other regions
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Asia
        • Asian lead mine capability
      • Europe
        • European lead mine capability
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead mine capability
      • Middle East
        • Middle Eastern lead mine capability
      • North America
        • North American lead mine capability
      • Oceania
        • Oceania lead mine capability
      • Russia and the Caspian
        • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
        • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
        • Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
        • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
        • Changes to possible projects listing
        • Requirement for and sources of new mine production
        • Smelter and refinery Production
          • Global refined lead production capability
          • Global primary and secondary production and adjustments
      • Africa
        • African refined lead production
      • Asia
        • New Chinese refined capacity (forecast production, kt Pb)
      • Europe
        • European refined lead production
      • Latin America
        • Latin American refined lead production
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Undersupply of mined lead moves market into deficit until 2019
      • Global refined lead balance and price
      • Primary v secondary output
    • Long-term outlook
      • Global price and stocks

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

  • Demand: Table 1
  • Auto and industrial sectors shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers remain significant
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Middle East
  • Oceania
  • African lead mine capability
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Image 9
  • US end use by sector
  • Auto replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Asian refined lead production
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.58 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 409.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 531.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 148.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 453.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 196.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 5.37 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 2.73 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 1.25 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2017

    ZIP 4.80 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2017

    PDF 869.04 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.55 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 520.45 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 230.26 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 119.44 KB

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