Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2019

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Lead has been a star performer. But this year we are at a transition point, going from four years of deficits to five maybe six years of surpluses.

Farid Ahmed, Principal Analyst Lead Markets

Quick read: Three key things you need to know about the lead market

  • The refined lead market is at a point of transition in 2019, moving from the supply tightness of the past four years into significant surpluses in the coming years.
  • After a period of contraction in mine supply, primary feed is set to grow, which will ease the tightness of recent years.
  • Global refined lead consumption will contract this year for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008/2009.

Purchase the full 40-page report for in-depth analysis of each of these factors, including charts and data sets. Scroll down for a full table of contents.

26 September 2019

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2019

Report summary

Total refined lead consumption will contract this year for the first time since the global financial crisis a decade ago, with the automotive battery sector being worst affected. This reduced demand will continue in the medium term but is more than offset by lower levels of mine production. These circumstances have eased the size of the lead concentrate and metal surpluses in the coming years from our Q2 LTO forecast although, particularly for refined lead, these will still be in meaningful quantities. Nevertheless, this year marks the transition point between the concentrate and refined lead tightness of the last four years to significant surpluses for both in the coming years. For the five years to 2024, mine supply will grow at 1.6% pa, but with adequate smelter capacity to deal with this new material, while refined lead consumption will manage just 1.3% pa. growth for the same period.

Table of contents

  • Key points
  • Demand – what's changed?
  • Supply - what's changed?
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Asian lead mine capability
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Oceania lead mine capability
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Changes to projects listing
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Asian refined lead production
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
  • Overview
    • Asia
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Europe
    • North America
    • US
    • Mexico
    • Latin America
    • Other regions
    • Batteries
    • Non-Battery
  • The market tightness of recent years will transition to significant surpluses in the medium term
  • Long-term outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

  • Global refined lead production capability
  • Lead key forecasts
  • Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
  • Global lead consumption
  • Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
  • Global primary versus secondary refined lead output
  • Global refined lead stocks and price
  • African lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle Eastern lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
  • Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • African refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  • Automotive demand now clearly ahead of ebikes
  • Industrial use continues to grow; autos dominate
  • Auto and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers stay significant with 3-wheelers weaker
  • Even spread of demand across sectors
  • Automotive to overtake industrial sector
  • Asian lead consumption
  • Industrial dominates with more auto imports
  • Auto replacement further declines due to imports
  • European lead consumption
  • Auto OE and replace plus stationary in growth, motive power sector in decline
  • US end use by sector
  • Stationary, auto replacement offset weaker sectors
  • North American lead consumption
  • Latin American lead consumption
  • Middle East lead consumption
  • Oceania lead consumption

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    slide_pack_lead_lto_q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.35 MB

  • Document

    Lead_Tables_LTO_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.58 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 425.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 650.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 152.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 438.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 74.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q1 2019.xls

    XLS 6.03 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 2.90 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.29 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2019

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2019

    ZIP 6.37 MB

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