Commodity market report
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37 Pages

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2013

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2013

Report summary

The lead market faces a medium-term outlook characterised by supply side shortages, tougher environmental regulation and refined market deficits.  The refined market moved into deficit this year and this is expected to prevail until 2017, with the deficit peaking in excess of 100kt in 2015 as supply cutbacks exceed over 1.1Mt.  Higher prices will result, peaking at $2850/t (129c/lb) in 2017, before falling to a trend average of $2300/t (104c/lb) from 2020 (2013 $)

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2013 PDF - 2.97 MB 37 Pages, 27 Tables, 14 Figures
  • Economics Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 320.00 KB
  • Slide pack lead LTO Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 482.04 KB
  • Demand main changes lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 124.00 KB
  • Demand analysis lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 447.00 KB
  • Supply main changes lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 89.00 KB
  • Production rankings lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 45.00 KB
  • Mine analysis lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.92 MB
  • Smelter analysis lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.01 MB
  • Refinery analysis lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.03 MB
  • Market balance and prices lead LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 271.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Mine production
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Middle East
      • Latin America
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Oceania lead mine production
      • Russian and the Caspian
      • Russia and the Caspian lead mine production
    • Smelter and refinery production
      • Global refined lead production capability
      • Africa
      • African refined lead production
      • Asia
      • New Chinese primary operations (forecast production, kt Pb)
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • India
      • Indian vehicle production has strong growth prospects
      • Japan
      • Europe
      • North America
      • US
      • Mexico
      • Latin America
    • Principal Uses of Lead
      • Batteries
      • Non-Battery
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • African lead mine production
    • Asian lead mine production
    • European lead mine production
    • Middle East lead mine production
    • Latin American lead mine production
    • North American lead mine production
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Supply: Table 14
    • Supply: Table 15
    • Supply: Table 16
    • European refined lead production
    • Latin American refined lead production
    • Middle Eastern refined lead production
    • North American refined lead production
    • Oceania refined lead production
    • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Chinese lead demand breakdown by sector
    • Ebikes to lose share to 2030
    • Demand: Image 4
    • 3G penetration one of lowest in the world
    • Japanese vehicle industry in strong decline
    • Demand: Table 2
    • European vehicle production bounce back stronger than previously forecast
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE auto sectors provides medium-term growth
    • US end use by sector
    • Only SLI replacement sector set to increase
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global refined lead balance and price
    • Global price and stocks
    • Global supply capability v demand
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